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Forum:2012 Atlantic hurricane season
Hall of Fame 2012 We shouldn't archive this in case anyone wants to go to the HOF, and the betting pools need to be updated every now and then as well. The replacement names section can be archived later, in case it needs to be continued furthermore. Ryan1000 16:39, October 22, 2012 (UTC) Post-season changes We still have a month and a week until the season is over for us, but NHC hasn`t released any TCR`s yet for the Atlantic. Does anyone have speculations on post-season changes they might do? Here`s what I think will happen and why: *Tropical Storm Beryl - 70 mph → 75 mph - 55% - I`m not completely convinced they`ll change this to being a hurricane in post-season, but there`s a chance. :*Apparently NHC didn't upgrade her post-season. This one didn't pan out to be true. 3 more possible upgrades left. *98L.INVEST (Late July) → Tropical Storm Five - 75% - Initially I didn`t think this was much, but after some thought, I think NHC refused to upgraded this because they thought it wasn`t worth it at that time. Look at this and tell me 98L wasn`t a tropical storm briefly. :*Probrably won't be recognized by now. That leaves Sandy left. *Hurricane Ernesto - 85 mph → 100 mph - 40% - There is a chance it might be upgraded to cat. 2 in post-season, but I wouldn`t count on it right now. :*This was verified true by NHC. There's one down, 4 to go. *Hurricane Gordon - 110 mph → 115 mph - 55% - There`s a chance this could be upgraded to a major in post-season, like Rina of last year, but I`m not entirely sure. :*TCR is now out, wasn't upgraded either. *Hurricane Sandy - 110 mph → 115 mph - 65% - Might have been a major when it hit Cuba. :*Yep, it's confirmed. No other post-season changes out there; all the TCR's are now released. 2 months until the 35th RA IV hurricane committee ends (April 8-12). Ryan1000 16:46, October 24, 2012 (UTC) I could see Gordon and Sandy both being upgraded to major hurricanes in post-season, 98L in July and 94L in September becoming unnamed tropical storms, (possibly) Beryl becoming a hurricane, and (possibly) Ernesto becoming a Cat. 2. I also think Michael might have been a tad stronger, too. AndrewTalk To Me 12:17, October 27, 2012 (UTC) I`m not too sure about 94L from late September being upgraded to tropical storm 15, but the 94L from September of last year became tropical storm 12 in post analysis, so who knows... Ryan1000 14:31, October 27, 2012 (UTC) Sandy is almost guarantee to be upgrade to a major.Gordon I would say 50/50.94L in September I say no and 98L a 60 to be upgrade to a storm.Last time I would say that Ernesto was a 2 but now will all the cat 1 having low pressure I am not sure anymore.Allanjeffs 20:42, October 28, 2012 (UTC) Well, we never say never. Nothing is ever guranteed, but I agree it`s very likely Sandy will be upgraded. Ryan1000 21:43, October 28, 2012 (UTC) : Florence's TCR out.Isaac829 20:34, October 30, 2012 (UTC) ::: Finally we have one...I think the others might be coming out soon. Ryan1000 22:19, October 30, 2012 (UTC) ::::: Still no new reports. BTW, I fixed all those silly apostrophe things. I was on a bad computer at the time I guess. Ryan1000 18:13, November 2, 2012 (UTC) I too think there's a chance that Sandy could be upgraded to a major hurricane. Wouldn't surprise me in the least. But I'm most interested in whether Sandy was tropical at landfall. I think it was and so does one of my meteorology professors (and trust me, he knows a thing or two about hurricanes lol...he built his own hurricane model from scratch). There was persistent convection around the storm center and a hint of an eye. Phase diagrams (which are a favorite tool for indicating extratropical transition) showed it as predominantly cold core, which is why I think NHC ended up calling it post-tropical before landfall at least operationally. There were also pronounced thermal gradients, with quasi-warm and cold fronts associated with the system like you would see in a mid-latitude cyclone or nor'easter, indicative of baroclinicity. I think these features, however, may have been associated with the nor'easter that Sandy was embedded in and not Sandy itself. The hybrid nature of the storm makes phase changes very difficult to determine. Sandy very much blurred the lines between what is and isn't a tropical cyclone. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 07:52, November 3, 2012 (UTC) The fact it was (or wasn't) post-tropical at landfall makes no difference regarding impacts or whether or not it will be retired, ect. Even so, the death toll in Cuba (deadliest since Dennis in 2005), would be enough to can it anyways. We might see a few other upgrades post-season; the one I'm hoping for is for Beryl to be a hurricane. =) That would make it the first pre-season storm to hit the U.S. as a hurricane since 1851, though a storm in May 1908 came agonizingly close to doing so. 98L of last July could have also briefly been named, if you see the image I posted above, it's hard to argue it wasn't a TS, if briefly. 'Ryan1000' 15:05, November 3, 2012 (UTC) I agree with the ts on July from 98L but I doubt Beryl will be upgrade upgrade the winds probably didn`t come down the surface like it happen with Sandy it have winds near cat 4 but they didn`t come down to the surface.Allanjeffs 19:32, November 3, 2012 (UTC) I think Sandy might be upgraded, or changed, from being subtropical to tropical at some point when it made landfall. I'm actually not really buying anything this year except 98L from last July. Sandy and Gordon ''might ''be upgraded to major hurricanes in post-season, Ernesto ''could be upped to C2 and Beryl could be upped to C1, but I'm not counting on any of them to happen. I'm pretty sure 98L will be upgraded post-season though. Ryan1000 ''01:04, November 4, 2012 (UTC) It seems the ATL is slowing down, but something could develop next week in the PR area and maybe another after that in the Caribbean. The season isn't quite over yet. ''Ryan1000 00:35, November 11, 2012 (UTC) Michael and Oscar are out, Michael was only a MH for one advisory, shortest number of MH days for any season since 1994, assuming Sandy and/or Gordon don't make it. Nothing's special with Oscar. Ryan1000 02:58, December 5, 2012 (UTC) Ernesto is now out, looks like he did briefly become a 100 mph C2 just before landfall after all. There's one of my predictions verified; though I only gave it a 40% chance of happening, I never ruled it out. I still have hopes for 98L of late July to be upgraded post-season, maybe 94L from September and 91L last week too. Sandy, Gordon, and Beryl all have a chance of being upgraded one category each too. Ryan1000 21:01, December 6, 2012 (UTC) Alberto Helene and Beryl are out. They didn`t upgrade Beryl to a hurricane like I thought.Allanjeffs 19:17, December 14, 2012 (UTC) : Beryl not a hurricane? I expected so. But.... Gordon might have a good shot at being a Major. What about Sandy being a Majorette? ID think so. XD Raraah The Awesome Pony 20:07, December 14, 2012 (UTC) ::: Aparently Beryl was denied the upgrade to C1, so the 1908 May Hurricane remains the only off-season hurricane to hit the U.S. Nothing's really changed with Helene or Alberto. Ryan1000 00:54, December 15, 2012 (UTC) ::: Joyce and Nadine are out. I do not believe Joyce has any special upgrades. But Nadine does. Turns out was never subtropical in its three-week lifespan. In other words, Nadine went from tropical to extratropical to tropical, not tropical to subtropical to extratropical to tropical. Also worth mentioning is that Nadine attained hurricane status on seperate occasions 13 days apart. No other Atlantic hurricane has attained hurricane status on two different occasions that far apart before. AndrewTalk To Me 00:08, January 9, 2013 (UTC) ::::: Had Nadine never went extratropical in her lifetime, the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season would've also had another record. The formation of Gordon on August 15th would've marked the largest number of consecutive days of active Atlantic tropical cyclones in history, ending with Oscar's dissipation on October 5, a 50-day time span. There was only one day in all of September that didn't have any named storms active in the Atlantic, which was September 22nd, the day Nadine dissipated, only to regenerate the next day. Ryan1000 02:33, January 9, 2013 (UTC) Patty and Rafael are out, no big surprises with either. That leaves Chris, Gordon, Isaac, Leslie, Sandy, and Tony. I think Tony and Chris are probrably the two most likely ones to come out next. Ryan1000 20:12, January 14, 2013 (UTC) Gordon Ileana and Miriam are out all stay the same.Allanjeffs 00:02, January 23, 2013 (UTC) So Lane is all that's left in EPac and We're missing a few more in ATL. Guess Gordon didn't make the upgrade to MH status, so the only other possible upgrades are 98L (probrably not by now), and Sandy (still not guranteed, but likely nontheless). Ryan1000 02:25, January 24, 2013 (UTC) Yep, Tony's out, nothing new. Almost done with our TCR's. Ryan1000 21:37, January 28, 2013 (UTC) Isaac's TCR is now done, peak intensity downed to 80 mph instead of 85 mph. Per the TCR, overall U.S. damages are estimated at 2.35 billion, mostly in Louisiana, and 34 people were killed by Isaac, 24 of which were in Haiti, and the other 10 in the US and DR. I also lose in the betting pools. =( Ryan1000 17:47, January 29, 2013 (UTC) Chris will probably peak at 85mph ;) note that the TCR still isn`t out.Allanjeffs 03:21, February 3, 2013 (UTC) Chris and Leslie are out. Chris now holds the record for most northerly Atlantic hurricane in June on record, and got a decent-sized boost in intensity (85 mph, 974 mbar). Leslie's peak intensity was also raised, but only by a little bit (new peak is 80 mph; the minimum pressure of 968 mbar remains unchanged), and regained hurricane strength before becoming extratropical. All that leaves is Sandy. --HurricaneMaker99 21:11, February 5, 2013 (UTC) I still believe Sandy will be upgraded to a 115 mph major hurricane in its TCR, which I do not expect to come out for a while. Also worth mentioning is that Isaac tied an Atlantic record. The hurricane's barometric pressure was downgraded from 968 mbar to 965 mbar in its TCR, making it the strongest non-Category 2 Atlantic hurricane on record alongslide Abby and Gladys in 1968 (seriously, a 965 mb should be a category 2, if not category 3 hurricane). Furthermore, not only is Sandy the strongest non-major Atlantic hurricane on record, it is the third strongest non-Category 4 hurricane, after Isidore in 2002 and Ione in 1955. I think Sandy's pressure will be downgraded to ~935 mbar, making it the second strongest Atlantic non-Category 4 ever. AndrewTalk To Me 22:13, February 5, 2013 (UTC) Good call on Chris Allan. Anyways, the last one left is Sandy, and that also leaves Isaac829 as the winner of the betting pools last post-season report. I wouldn't be that surprised if Sandy becomes a major upon it's Cuba landfall, but at the same time, I wouldn't be baffled if it doesn't either. I'm also waiting to know (most importantly) if Sandy is officially classified as being extratropical or not when it came ashore in southern New Jersey. With Leslie, she was a hurricane quite a bit longer than earlier thought, and her peak intensity was revised a little.Ryan1000 11:54, February 6, 2013 (UTC) Sandy's TCR is expected to be released next Monday.Isaac829 20:34, February 6, 2013 (UTC) We'll see. I expect some changes out of Sandy's TCR one way or another, but I don't know everything that will happen yet. Ryan1000 23:29, February 6, 2013 (UTC) In the updated summary table, Sandy has been upgraded to category 3.Isaac829 21:01, February 7, 2013 (UTC) The TCR hasn't been released yet; might be just a best track update, but still waiting for it to be official. Seems a little convincing though. I'm also interested in knowing if it was or wasn't tropical when it made landfall in New Jersey. Ryan1000 16:14, February 9, 2013 (UTC) The TCR for Sandy will be released on Tuesday morning instead of Monday.Isaac829 03:40, February 11, 2013 (UTC) Yep, Sandy's TCR is now out. Confirmed to have been a 115 mph major hurricane when it made landfall in southern Cuba. However, NHC also said she was post-tropical before landfall, about 45 miles southwest of Atlantic City New Jersey Sandy became extratropical, and shortly after she came ashore. NHC says 147 deaths from Sandy, 72 directly in the U.S. and 87 indirect deaths afterwards. NHC still says overall damages were at least 50 billion, but as of now it's believed to be ~74 billion according to other sources. I don't know what the finalized, total damage figure will be, but I expect it to be extraordinarilly high, perhaps even more than 80 billion. Ryan1000 13:54, February 12, 2013 (UTC) Farewell Well, with less than 48 hours left of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season, I assume there isn't any harm in starting this section a little early. This year, we saw (pending post-season changes): *19 total depressions (could be upped to 21), *19 total storms (could be upped to 21) , *10 hurricanes (could be upped to 11), *one major hurricane (could be upped to three),, *an accumulated cyclone energy of 123, *$68 billion (2012 USD) dollars in damage, and *327 deaths. Meteorologically, this was an unusual year, with two pre-season storms, a June hurricane in an abnormal location, a record number of August forming storms, the longest lived hurricane in 10 years, the widest Atlantic hurricane ever, etc. Impactwise, 2012 will be long remebered, because of Debby, Isaac, Rafael, and of course, Sandy. Despite the wild activity, the ACE was literally a re-2011. And to make things even worse for the Sandy and Isaac recovery areas, I predict 2013 to be even more active... Any opinions? AndrewTalk To Me 03:28, November 29, 2012 (UTC) Actually we could get 1 more storm in 5 days base on all the models that are excited in developing that area in thre Eatlantic I think we would end with 20 or 21 depending if this storm forms and the one in July may be upgrade which I am starting to doubt knowing the NHC 2 majors and hurricanes I am not sure if Beryl will be upgrade.Allanjeffs 03:41, November 29, 2012 (UTC) This year was a very odd season. Assuming we get no storms in December, we tied 1887, 1995, and the past two seasons for the third most active year ever. With 19 named storms forming in 2012, it marks the first time in recorded history that 19 storms formed in the Atlantic for three consecutive seasons. This is also the first time ever the Atlantic and EPac had at least 17 named storms each. Also, with only one major hurricane, 2012 had the fewest number of major hurricanes in any Atlantic season since there were none in 1994, although tied with 1997. Michael also became a major hurricane for a mere 6 hours, which is the fewest number of major hurricane days (MHD's) since there were none in 1994. We saw 3 hurricanes make landfall in the Atlantic this year (Ernesto, Isaac, and Sandy, 4 if you count Gordon's brush near the Azores), though no major hurricane landfalls (assuming Sandy isn't upgraded upon it's landfall). Last year there was only one landfalling hurricane in the entire season (Irene; Maria was downgraded to a TS in post-analysis when it hit Newfoundland), which was the lowest ever for a season with so many named storms. 2010 had 6 landfalling hurricanes, though none in the U.S. There were also 6 named storms in the 2010, 2011, and 2012 Atlantic seasons that would have likely gone unnoticed if they had formed before the sattelite era. So if these 3 seasons existed before 1941, they would have only had 13 confirmed tropical storms in the entirety of the season. The forecast I made at the start of this year in my blog wasn't that far off in ACE, but the number of named storms and hurricanes I predicted was too low. I didn't expect so few major hurricanes though. Overall, as I and many others mentioned in earlier discussions of this year and those of past seasons, it only takes one bad storm to make an entire season unforgettable. In this year, that storm was Sandy. Hurricane Sandy was a storm without parallel in the history of the Atlantic basin. It really was a Superstorm, and it will go down as one of the worst natural disasters in U.S, and Cuban, history. It will take years, maybe even decades, for New England to return to its former state. To a much lesser extent, Hurricane Isaac also caused significant flooding in Louisiana and the hardest-hit areas will take many years to recover, but it fails in comparison to Sandy. Sandy (and/or Isaac) won't be retired until April 10, in the middle of the 35th session of the RA IV Hurricane Committee (from April 8 to 12 in Curacao). A few other notable facts about 2012 include being the first time since 1908 to have two storms in pre-season, first time since 1887 to have two storms form in May, earliest 4th storm on record (Debby), tied for the most active August on record (2004), second-costliest storm in the history of the Atlantic basin (and also second-costliest season, from Sandy), fewest number of major hurricanes in a non-El Nino year since...ever (tied with some other years like 1990), what could be the first time since 2007 and only 5th time in history with pre and post-season storms, and most notably, tied with the 1861-1868 streak for largest gap between any two U.S. landfalling major hurricanes (we still have yet to see one, as of October 24 2005). Ryan1000 15:17, November 29, 2012 (UTC) ::Like 1992, I think 2012 will ultimately be defined by one storm. We will probably never see a storm like Sandy again in our lifetimes. It truly was the perfect storm, far more so than the 1991 storm that bears that name. This was the northeastern hurricane event that scientists had warned us about for years. It was right out of the Day After Tomorrow. The scale of Sandy is hard to wrap your head around. The wind field spanned 1,150 miles. That's about the distance from New York City to Topeka, Kansas, or roughly halfway across the lower 48. It directly affected the wind flow of roughly a fifth of the northwestern hemisphere. For New Jersey and portions of New York, this was their Katrina. From now on, there will be life before Sandy, and life after Sandy. Many of these areas have a long road to recovery ahead of them. As for the rest of the season, it was indeed a strange year. Two storms in May, but none in July, then eight in August, only two in September and then five in October. Very strange. Just one official major hurricane (I think Sandy may have gotten there before it hit Cuba) is the fewest for a non-El Nino year since 1990. However, I think this year very harshly illustrated the shortcomings of the Saffir Simpson Scale. Sandy was just a Category 1 storm with winds of 90 mph at landfall, yet it was arguably the most devastating storm to strike the northeast since the 1938 hurricane (Diane in 1955, also a weak storm, has a case) and one of the costliest in US history. Forgotten in the wake of Sandy, Isaac also caused major flooding to portions of the Gulf Coast. The past three seasons have been remarkably prolific. 2010-2012 fell just two storms short of tying 2003-2005 for the most storms in a three year span in recorded history and having 19 storms three years straight is simply remarkable. You could argue that better technology has led to the discovery of more storms but I don't think that explains this recent activity. I think it's ironic that many prognosticators have suggested that global warming will lead to fewer, but stronger storms. Well, in recent years, we've had more but weaker storms. That's certainly been true the past couple of years. The atmosphere has shown the ability to produce a high number of storms, but most of them have had trouble strengthening because of high wind shear or dry air entrainment. The latter has become increasingly common. But, again, this year more than any year has shown that every storm should be taken seriously. So many different factors determine how destructive a storm will be and you don't have time to weigh all those factors. When in doubt, get the hell out. Even in urban areas, the odds of your property somehow getting looted or otherwise damaged by anything other than the storm is very small. And a stolen tv set sucks a whole lot less than being dead. What I take away most from this season is that nothing is impossible. You must be prepared for any eventuality, no matter how remote it might seem, because even for areas well away from the coast, any given hurricane season could change your life forever. -- [[User:SkyFury|''Sky]][[User talk:SkyFury|Fury]] 10:20, December 2, 2012 (UTC) ::::The thing that surprises me most about this year is when the "big one" came. I mean, don't get me wrong, I thought we would get something big and long-remebered this hurricane season, but I didn't expect it to happen at the time it did. By the time mid-October came around, I threw my hands up and thought Isaac was the big storm this year, but just two weeks later, our second-most destructive hurricane in U.S. history decimated the larget city in the United States. I did think New York City would eventually get hit by a massive hurricane like the one portrayed in the "It Could Happen Tomorrow" episode on TWC in January 2006, but I never expected to see the hurricane in the end of October. New England is no stranger to hurricanes, but most of them hit in August or September. Hurricane Bob of 1991, the last hurricane to hit New England before Sandy (Irene was downgraded to a TS in post-analysis when it hit NJ), hit by August 18-19. Gloria of 1985 hit in late September. The 1938 storm hit on September 21. I don't ever recall a hurricane hitting New England as late as October 29, nor hitting the coastline from the position Sandy did. And the last few seasons do indeed make Global Warming so uncertain. We initially thought it would cause bigger, stronger hurricanes, but in 2010, 2011, and 2012, we had many storms but relatively weak hurricanes. And the intensity of these storms caught many by surprise. We haven't had an official major hurricane hit the United States since Hurricane Wilma on October 24, 2005. However, every hurricane that did hit the U.S. since then (barring the small, weak ones like Humberto and Dolly), were all gargantuan category 1 or two hurricanes (Gustav, Ike, Irene, Isaac, Sandy) when they hit. These storms all rank amongst the costliest hurricanes in U.S. history. People need to look at more than the Saffir-Simpson scale to determine the severity of hurricanes. The size, the shape of the coastline, the forward speed, they're all crucial factors to determining how bad they can truly be. 'Ryan1000' 15:38, December 2, 2012 (UTC) ::::Global warming causes all of this to happen. This has gotta be a bad season. ME?!?! I'm seeing worse next year. Humberto running up da East Coast blowing the Jersey Shore like JWoww?!? LOL. Imagine that. Big cat 3 major. BUT!!!! This year has been bad with Sandy cheeks. So to top it off... :::: Yes. Does anyone find it funny? And... 2012 is gon be remembered. Beryl. Debby. Ernesto. Isaac. Sandy. BTW, Dolly 2008 was not weak. She was quite reasonable as a cat 2 compared to floppies like Cindy 2011. Raraah The Awesome Pony 20:25, December 14, 2012 (UTC) :::Dolly wasn't as severe as she was initially feared; most of the damage she caused was from crop losses in the Rio Grande valley, not so much coastal storm surge as I initially feared it would be. Anyway, there isn't much else I expect for the rest of this season. Maybe one or two other post-season changes, but other than that, nothing else. 'Ryan1000' 00:54, December 15, 2012 (UTC) And the year of 2012 has finally closed up. Last day of the year, but there's virtually no chance a storm will form in either ATL or EPac today, though Freda still churns in the SHem. I earlier thought we could have a potential storm in post-season or November, but that didn't happen. We stopped at 19 storms for 3 straight years, and that's absolutely remarkable. As I look back on 2012, it will be a year of mystery and history. Very odd, yet consistent, activity year round, and several sotrms that will never be forgotten, or seen again, in our lifetimes. The two biggest storms I'll never forget in 2012 are undoubtedly going to be Sandy and Bopha, both historic, record-setting storms that will go down in history as amongst the worst storms to ever hit their respective countries. Other storms like Isaac and Haikui also made a spot in the hall of fame of 2012, but they won't be remembered as long as Sandy and Bopha. 'Ryan1000' 09:23, December 31, 2012 (UTC) Retirements at a glance, part 2 With the post-season coming, I'll update my retirement predictions. #Alberto - 0% #Beryl - 1% #Chris - 0% #''Debby - 30% #Ernesto - 5% #Florence - 0% #Gordon - 1% #Helene - <1% #'Isaac - 70%' #Joyce - 0% #Kirk - 0% #Leslie - 1% #Michael - 0% #Nadine - 1% #Oscar - 0% #Patty - <1% #''Rafael - 20%'' #'Sandy - >99%' #Tony - 0% AndrewTalk To Me 03:28, November 29, 2012 (UTC) Since the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season has finally been put to rest, Here is Ryan grand's final calls on the retirements of 2012: *Alberto - 0% - Was fun to watch while it lasted, but it still caused no impact, so no. *Beryl - 3% - It gets some credit for early impacts in the U.S, but those impacts were nearly negligible. *Chris - 0% - Sure, it surprised me by becoming a hurricane, but no impact, no retirement. *Debby- 25% - Caused extensive flooding in Florida, but it just isn't enough for retirement. *Ernesto - 15% - Similar damage to Debby, but considering Mexico's track record... *Florence - 0% - Unlike our last original "I" name, our last original "F" name didn't do jack sh!t. So, no. *Gordon - 5% - Gets credit for impacts in the Azores, but I doubt they know how to retire names... *Helene - 1% - Never say never, but still highly unlikely. *Isaac - 55% - After some thought, I've decided to go a little more conservative on Isaac; while he could still be retired, I'm not placing my money on it. *Joyce - 0% - I have no choice...but to keep Joyce. *Kirk - 0% - Captain Kirk will not live long and prosper in the Hall of Fame. *Leslie - 5% - Some respect for impacts in Newfoundland, but nothing like Igor. *Michael - 0% - Our season's only major hurricane didn't do anything on land. *Nadine - 6% - 5% for impacts on the Azores, 1% for how long she defied her demise. *Oscar - 0% - Wait, which one was Oscar again? *Patty - 0% - Came close to the Bahamas, but it still couldn't cause an ounce of impact. *Rafael - 10% - Yeah, yeah, France might get silly with this one, but I don't expect that to happen. *Sandy - 100% - Sandy will be retired, the end. *Tony - 0% - What's that now? These are my final calls on the retirements of 2012. A general summary of them is here: *'Definitely Retired: '''Sandy. *'Probrably retired: None. *'Possibly retired: '''Isaac. *'Probrably not retired: 'Debby, Ernesto, Rafael. *'Not retired: '''Everyone else. ''Ryan1000'' 15:46, November 29, 2012 (UTC) Mine! :D *DEFO retired = Sandy. *Probably retired = Isaac. *Maybe? = No-one. *Mehhh = Debbie, Beryl, Erneeehhh. *Nah! Not you this time! = Everyone else, that includes YOU, RAFA! :O Raraah The Awesome Pony 20:09, December 14, 2012 (UTC) '''CobraStrike's Predictions *Alberto - 0% '''- Nice early storm, fizzled out without dropping much rainfall *Beryl - '''3% - Caused some flooding, somewhat notable early storm, but little damage *Chris - 0% - Really cool storm to track, no damage. *Debby - 10% - Extensive flooding in Debby, but doesn't seem for retirement. *Ernesto - 17% - Damage across Lesser Antilles and Mexico, but if they can't retire Karl, they probably won't retire Ernesto. *Florence - 0% - Did nothing *Gordon - 1% - Sand was blown in the Azores *Helene - 2% - Two deaths and $17m, so, probably not fit for retiring *Isaac - 50% - Seems a pretty reasonable candidate for retirement, with 2-5 billion in damages expected and tons of flood damage. *Joyce - 0% - Fishpinner. Lowest ACE of the year award. *Kirk - 0% - Hope you had fun traveling to 'boldly go where no man has gone before." *Leslie - 1% - Slammed into Bermuda and Newfoundland and did nothing. *Michael - 0% - The only major of the year can't make up his mind in the middle of the ocean. *Nadine - 1% - Nadine stuck around for a while, but couldn't do much damage. *Oscar - 0% - Nothing *Patty - 0% - More organized as a tropical depression. *Sandy - 100% - Retired. *Tony - 0% - Got us to 'T' again. Sandy 99% Isaac 75% Debby and Rafael %20 the rest 0 to the fishes and 1 to 5 % for the little impacts to the ones that make landfall.Allanjeffs 04:49, January 9, 2013 (UTC) Last thoughts: *Probably retired - Sandy *Possibly retired - Isaac *Probably not retired - Ernesto, Debby *Not retired - Everyone else Isaac829 02:56, February 8, 2013 (UTC) Sandy's damage is now over $70 billion. Sandy you will not pull a Gordon, you are gone. If the WMO doesn't retire this, they must be on crack.Leeboy100 (talk) 18:53, February 17, 2013 (UTC) Nope, its $50 billion, the $20 billion is used for relief/repair.Isaac829 19:50, February 17, 2013 (UTC) The WMO will for sure retire Sandy. Every other hurricane with damage as close to it has been retired (the costliest non-retired hurricane was Juan in 1985, with roughly ~$3 billion in damage being caused). The only excuse Sandy has for not going was that it was not a tropical cyclone at its U.S. landfall. Even if, by some odd chance, the U.S. passes retirement, the Carribean will not, as Sandy was devestating there was well. Isaac might go as well, but it has really been overshadowed by Sandy. Otherwise, I do not expect any other name retirements. AndrewTalk To Me 22:52, February 17, 2013 (UTC) I personally think both Isaac and Sandy will be retired; Isaac did kill roughly 40 people and cause over 2.3 billion dollars in damage (exactly on the 7th anniversary of Katrina in New Orleans), which certainly makes it a prime retirement canidate, but I wouldn't be entirely surprised if Isaac isn't retired either. And even though Sandy was a non-tropical cyclone when it hit New Jersey, that shouldn't keep her from being retired. If the U.S, by some miracle, doesn't request Sandy, the Caribbean (particularly Cuba) will. Sandy's 11 deaths in Cuba make it the deadliest Cuban hurricane since Dennis in 2005 killed 16 people, even deadlier than Gustav, Ike, and Paloma of 2008. 2 billion in damage isn't anything to scoff at either, which makes Sandy Cuba's 4th costliest hurricane, after Gustav, Michelle, and Ike. Aside from Sandy and/or Isaac, there shouldn't be any other names retired. Ryan1000 13:31, February 18, 2013 (UTC) Sandy, Sandy, Sandy. You are DEFO gonna get retired, no choice. You have killed many, and you were very costly. Isaac, you have no choice, whoever makes the hurricane lists are gonna kick you out. Everyone is going to request Sandy to go, with most likely the replacement name being Skylar. (Cuba ALWAYS picks the best names!) Shaniqua would have been a good replacement name too. Isaac? Well he is going to have to go, at Haiti and the US's request, look what he did, he was a mini Katrina. Forget Debby, Beryl and Ernesto; (I call him ERNEH) they are no way going from the list this time. They are not even close to Isaac. Does anyone agree here? Raraah, Awesome Pony 19:24, February 18, 2013 (UTC) I agree. Only Isaac and Sandy are close enough for retirement. Debby's effects are nothing compared to Isaac's and Sandy's, Ernesto hit a nation with high retirement standards, Rafael might go but it is not likely, and all the other storms (including storms with minor impacts, like Beryl and Nadine) caused no significant impact. AndrewTalk To Me 22:02, February 18, 2013 (UTC) The WMO rescently released a word document (here) with the NHC requesting the name Sandy to be removed in the upcoming RA IV this April (see the bottom of the page) and be replaced with Sara, Sheri (probrably not due to Shary) or Susan. However, Isaac's name is not there. Not to say Isaac won't be retired, but this may be what will happen. Worth mentioning for the time being. Ryan1000 01:57, March 15, 2013 (UTC) Replacement names, part 2 We should probably still keep this section up and going because some people might still want to discuss name replacements for the season's likely retirees. If anyone has updated their replacement name bets since the end of the season (like me), please feel free to discuss it below. For reference, here are my name casts: Sandy: *Sadie *Sierra *Sahara *'Sophie' *Sophia *Sylvia *Silvia *Shelby *Sarah *Sara *Shannon *Sasha *Sharon *Susie *Susan *Sue *Susanne *Suzanne *Seeder *Savannah *Sapphire *Stacy *Staceyah *Stella *Sydney *Sofia *Sheryl *Semaaj *Schuyler *Skylar *Schyler *Simone *Shirley *Sabine *Sabina *Saturn *Svenja *Stephanie *Stefanie *Stefani Isaac: *Ilya *'Iestin' *Innis *Illa I am not adding any replacement name suggestions for Rafael, Debby, or any of the other names. Feel free to add some if you want to. AndrewTalk To Me 22:02, February 18, 2013 (UTC) Since I don't expect anything more than Isaac and Sandy to be retired, I won't mention any other names. For Isaac, I have more names here: *Ichabod *'Icarus' *Ignatius *Ira *Ivor (may be confusing with Igor) *Imanuel *Ingram *Inocente *Ioan I'm still sticking with Icarus. As for Sandy, I still want Sheena. Ryan1000 15:02, February 19, 2013 (UTC) : Dun dun dunnnn... Introducing the Consice List of Hurricane Replacement Names!! - drum rolls- SANDY *Saada *Sarah *Saba *Sabara *Sabbatha *'Sabina' *'Sabrina' *'Sabine' *Sable *Sabra *Sadie *'Sasha' *'Shaniqua' *'Shanaynay' *Saffron *Safa *Safara *Sajja *Saki *Shatoria *Sook *Sooki *Sondra *Sonel *Sonia *Sonja *Sonya *Star *Stella *Summer *Suha *Svea *Suzu *Swan *Suzuki (like the car company) *'Stacey' *'Skylar' *'Skyler' *'Serena' *'Serina' *'Selena' *'Selene' ISAAC *Iago *Ib *Ibsen *'Idreiss' *'Iqbal' *'Icarus' *Ichabod *Ifor *'Iggy' *Ignatius *Ilya *Ilyas *Ingmar *Ingo *Ingram *Inigo *Innes *Iolo *Ira *Irvin *Irving *Isaiah (NOT Isaiahs) *Isham *Ishmael *Ismail *Ivar *Ives *Ivor *Ixxidore *Izzy (yes this can be a boy's name too) Names in BOLD are my preferences. But if I had to narrow it down, it's SKYLAR for''' SANDY and '''IDREISS for ISAAC. Debby and Rafa going? Not happening. Raraah, Awesome Pony 18:56, February 19, 2013 (UTC) Once again, my picks are Ippolito and Silvia. They really need to use more Italian names. Andros 1337 (talk) 04:05, February 20, 2013 (UTC) :My choices remain Irving and Stephanie. --HurricaneMaker99 04:45, February 21, 2013 (UTC) :I have to agree with many of the name suggestions given here. I would also like to comment on some of the name ideas. Liz, you have many creative and thoughtful ideas, but some might be considered no-nos when the World Meteorological Organization decides on this year's replacement names. For Sandy's replacement ideas, Sonia is already in use in the East Pacific, making it unusuable along with the similarly spelled Sonja and Sonya. Sondra is a little confusing with Sandy and is also very close with Sandra, in use on List I in the East Pacific basin. And as for Isaac, Irvin is identical with Irwin, in use on List III in the Pacific and Ishamel and Ismail are closely pronounced towards Ismael, retired after the 1995 Pacific season. Also, Ivor and Ivar might be too similar with Ivo, Iva, Igor, and to a lesser extent, Iwa, a few names retired or in usage across in the Atlantic and Pacific basins. Ixxidore sounds like an alternative spelling of Isidore, retired after 2002, and Izzy can easily be considered a nickname for Isabel, retired after 2003, or even Isidore. Otherwise, you have many unique name ideas. And Andros, many Italian names are already in usage across the Atlantic and Pacific (Alberto, Amanda, Andrea, Barbara, Carlotta, Celia, Emilia, Ernesto, Fabio, Fausto, Fernanda, Ida, Irma, Laura, Lidia, Linda, Lisa, Lorenzo, Manuel, Marco, Maria, Nora, Olivia, Priscilla, Rina, Rosa, Sandra, Sergio, Sonia, Teresa, Tina, Veronica, Vicente, Walter, etc.). Once again, I would narrow it down to Iestin and Sophie. AndrewTalk To Me 04:12, February 25, 2013 (UTC) Although some names can be confusing with others in both the ATL and EPac, it doesn't mean the WMO can't replace names with variants of another name on the list, though I personally wouldn't like it. Frank and Franklin are variants of each other, and they're on the ATL and EPac lists, just one year apart from each other. Danny (ATL list 1, most recently 2009) could be considered an alternate version of Daniel, which was used in 2012 (list 4 for EPac). Also, there's no rule whatsoever on a (variant of) an Atlantic name being retired not being able to be used as a replacement name in the EPac, and vise versa. Hilda and Dora are the classic two examples of that, both were retired in the Atlantic back in 1964, but they were put on the EPac's naming lists (1 and 3 respectively) about 15 years later. Ryan1000 13:30, February 25, 2013 (UTC) The result! Look in the photo for more details. Susan, Sheri or Sara. (WHY NOT SHANIQUA OR SKYLAR OR SELENA?!?! THEY'RE SO MUCH MORE CREATIVE!) Raraah, Awesome Pony 20:34, March 15, 2013 (UTC) NHC is not that creative, unfortunately. Isaac829 21:36, March 15, 2013 (UTC) : So Isaac won't be retired? Oh well...guess he'll have to try better in 2018. Nothing is confirmed yet, but unless NHC writes Isaac down before that, we won't see him getting retired. Ryan1000 13:48, March 16, 2013 (UTC) :I think Isaac will be retired. It caused $2 Billion in damage, it is very rare they don't retire Billion-dollar storms. Fpschmitt (talk) 13:44, March 17, 2013 (UTC) :::The 35th RA IV Hurricane committee begins today. We will likely know of our retirees on April 10th, in the middle of the session. I would like to see Isaac and Sandy retired, but per the link I mentioned above about 3 weeks ago, the NHC only requested Sandy. I don't know if Isaac will be retired, but I think it should happen. Ryan1000 00:24, April 8, 2013 (UTC) And it's over. Looks like Sandy was retired and replaced with Sara. Isaac, however, was not retired, and he'll be coming back again in 2018. Looks like our last original "I" retirement will have to wait until some other day. I'm not entirely surprised about Isaac not being retired, but I personally think it should've happened. Oh well...that puts the farewell to the 2012 forum for good. Ryan1000 17:48, April 11, 2013 (UTC) : I'm glad my name is still on the list.Isaac829 19:42, April 11, 2013 (UTC) Hurricane Sandy 'Hurricane Sandy strongens and weakens' 15 mph 18L to 40 mph sandy to 80 mph sandy, landfall in jamaica to 115mph '''Sandy, '''landfall in Cuba and Puerto Rico to 100 mph sandy landfall in The Bahamas to 80 mph sandy to 55 mph sandy to 75 mph sandy to 100 mph sandy to 90 mph sandy to extratropical sandy 80 mph landfall in New jersey and New York, 70 mph sandy landfall in Canada to 25 mph sandy. 23:38, February 4, 2014 (UTC)